- Trade in Personal and Household Goods set to grow sizably in Q3 2019
- Imports of Basic Raw Materials bolster both air and ocean trade, partially offsetting weakness in other sectors
SEOUL, KOREA – Media OutReach – 9 July 2019 – South Korea’s trade outlook retains some cause for optimism despite continued deceleration both air and ocean trade, according to latest data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, suggests that trade in Personal and Household Goods will experience significant growth between June and August 2019, rising 15 points to an index of 89. However, most other sectors continue to exhibit signs of ongoing trade weakness, with marked declines in both air and ocean exports expected, thus pulling down the overall trade outlook by 3 to an index value of 46. South Korea’s air imports, on the other hand, look set to grow modestly thanks to rising trade in sectors like Temperature or Climate Controlled goods and Basic Raw Materials — the latter of which is predicted to make positive contributions to the country’s ocean imports.
“South Korea’s high reliance on exports has rendered its economy particularly susceptible to the global downturn in trade, particularly as its key industries like semiconductors and technology have been acutely affected by recent trade disputes,” said SP Song, Managing Director, DHL Global Forwarding Korea. “The evolving nature of global trade disputes will likely dictate the course of South Korea’s own trade growth in the coming months, with domestic demand aided by government stimulus measures and broader overseas diversification likely to yield opportunities for South Korean businesses looking for increasingly rare growth at home.”
Latest results show negative effects of trade wars
For the first time in six quarters, the Barometer’s results predict a slight decline in global trade between June and August 2019, with its overall world trade outlook dropping to just 48 index points.
Commenting on the latest forecast, Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said, “Amidst rising US-Chinese tensions, the slightly negative outlook for global trade for the third quarter of 2019 does not come as a complete surprise. The latest GTB clearly illustrates why trade disputes create no winners. Nevertheless, some major economies such as Germany continue to record positive trade growth. And from a year-to-date perspective, world trade growth has still been positive. Hence, we remain confident in our initial prognosis that 2019 will be a year with overall positive, but slower trade growth.”
The continued trade disputes between the US and China have contributed significantly to that decline, with both countries experiencing the largest declines in their trade outlook (-11 points for the US, -7 points for China) out of all countries surveyed by the Barometer. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.
Scharwath said, “The GTB is a useful tool for us to anticipate economic developments at an early stage. We are well-prepared to tackle the forecasted developments. Our divisional structure and portfolio as well as our worldwide activities allow us to balance economic effects within the company and remain resilient to changes in global trade dynamics.”
About the Global Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator is published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled for September 2019.
information on the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/gtb.
DHL – The logistics company for the world
DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL family of divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial supply chain management. With about 380,000 employees in more than 220 countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses securely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and healthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is decisively positioned as “The logistics company for the world”.
DHL is part of Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 61 billion euros in 2018.